Tuesday 14 May 2013
Half way through the month, and there has been but one trade recommendation, and
it was a losing one, at that. Here are a representative group of charts from various
sectors that illustrate the problem for trading in these days of central planners taking
The only trade recommendation for May, so far, was the Australian Dollar, primarily
because it was in a protracted trading range, [TR], and near perceived potential support
after forming a recent higher swing low. You go with the facts available at the time of
decision-making and adjust, if necessary, as new developing market activity occurs.
The day identified as “dangerous” is because of the exceptional size of the range and how
one can get financially “hurt” when they occur. We are constantly aware of that kind of
potential in currencies which is why we tend to stay away.
The corn chart is representative of the grains for April and May. There has been little to
recommend in either direction, even with the trend favoring shorts.
Not much going on in the softs, either. Sugar remains at lows, and coffee is, well, coffee,
a New York market that can undress position traders very quickly.
Neither gold nor silver were buys after the selling onslaught[er] by JPM in mid-April.
Picking bottoms is a trading fool’s game, and finding a place to go short, advantageously,
did not happen, at least for us.
The bond market is one of fiction, and it is very difficult to trade that which is not real.
The same is true for the Fed’s stock market, the primary [perhaps only] impetus for the
current rally on relatively scant volume. This is another market of pure fiction that is
being manipulated by the Fed to “appear” safe and the only “game in town, as it seeks
to sucker in as much money as possible, making alternatives almost financially
The greatest risk in this bubble environment is less a consideration of return on money
as it is a concern for a return of one’s money.
Not much else to recommend.