Crude Oil

Wednesday  23 September 2015

Stopped out at price on the half-position of Nov crude oil, 45.85

23 Sep – Buy 46.90
23 Sep – Sell 45.85

Loss = 105 tics, $1050 plus $15 commission per contract.

Despite what appeared to be strong evidence of buying over
the past several days, this sharp reversal, after another strong
intra day volume rally triggering the trade, and the equally fast
reversal suggests what looked like buying volume was actually
the opposite, or so it seems.  This cannot be known until after
the fact, unfortunately, and we walked right into either a bull
trap or smart money playing games with market activity.

The trigger on this trade was no different from the wheat trade,
which has been working out well, and no different that the
earlier closed out for a loss soy meal trade.  Nor was the signal
any different than the still struggling Canadian dollar.

Even being cautious entails risks.

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